Second, most decisions should probably be made with somewhere around 70% of the information you wish you had. If you wait for 90%, in most cases, you’re probably being slow. Plus, either way, you need to be good at quickly recognizing and correcting bad decisions. If you’re good at course correcting, being wrong may be less costly than you think, whereas being slow is going to be expensive for sure.It is prudent to be patient, but a small starter position to learn more about a company is not the end of the world. Break problems down into managemable chunks and move fast and break things like Tech likes to live by.
"Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, 'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases." - Warren Buffet
Saturday, March 8, 2025
Bounded Rationality
Sometimes it is better to just make a decision with just as much information as you have. From Bezo's 2016 shareholder letter:
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