Saturday, June 22, 2024

Housing vs Stock Market

 Kyla Scanlon had a great article on housing: https://kyla.substack.com/p/why-we-have-a-housing-crisis

"($10,000 invested in equities in June 1974 would today be worth $2.4 million. If invested in housing, it would be worth $139,000 today.)"

Those would be a CAGR of 11.6% for 240x for equities and 5.4% for 13.9x for housing.  It is amazing that just double the CAGR for 50 years is not just a difference equivalent to double the difference in returns, but 17.2x MORE. I know which way I lean in this debate for a variety of reason, but this number does not reflect leverage or rent collected. (Pet peeve when people say you did not have to pay rent if you buy a house, but I suppose it depends on how you view an "investment") 

The leverage is a very powerful concept for real estate, but could be a double edged sword depending on interest rate and timeframe. The rents collected is a weaknesss compared to equitity dividends that can be compounded with reinvestming into the stock. (Real estate is a forever cigar butt at best in an analogy for its rents) In addition, the expenses of housing are often underestimated and with stocks, it is built in before you get the net income.

No comments: