"Long ago, Sir Isaac Newton gave us three laws of motion, which were the work of genius. But Sir Isaac's talents didn't extend to investing: He lost a bundle in the South Sea Bubble, explaining later, 'I can calculate the movement of the stars, but not the madness of men.' If he had not been traumatized by this loss, Sir Isaac might well have gone on to discover the Fourth Law of Motion: For investors as a whole, returns decrease as motion increases." - Warren Buffet
Saturday, June 7, 2025
Streaks
I am not sure when do you know doubling down on a decreasing stock price is akin to "Gambler's Fallacy" and I will go broke doing that. I do know that in one study of 6,500 stocks from 1985-2024, the median drawdown was 85% and peak to trough took 2.5 years. Then again half of the stocks never recovered. In order to finish first, you must first survive.
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