Paul Tudor Jones

 Read this quote a few times in the past and it always rings so true:

There are two unpleasant experiences that every trader will face in his lifetime at least once and most likely multiple times. First, there will come a day after a devastatingly brutal and agonizing stretch of losing trades that you’ll wonder if you will ever make a winning trade again. And second, there will come a point when you begin to ask yourself why it is you make money and if this is truly sustainable. That first experience tests an individual’s grit; does he have the stamina, courage, guts, and smarts to get up and engage the battle again? That second moment of enlightenment is the one that is actually scarier because it acknowledges a certain lack of control over anything. I think I was almost 38 years old when one day, in a moment of frightening enlightenment, I knew that I really did not know exactly how and why I had made all the money that I had over the prior 17 years. This threw my confidence for a jolt. It sent me down a path of self-discovery that today is still a work in progress.

https://novelinvestor.com/paul-tudor-jones-the-mental-obstacles-of-investing/

It is a fitting quote not just about the market, but life itself. 

Magic Numbers

 Crossfit seems to be very fond of magic number of reps such as 21, 15, and 9 in a set. Or maybe triplets like 6, 7, 8. Or maybe even just a climbing sequence in 10, 20, 30. Investing seems to have some magical numbers too. Rule of 72 is 72 divided by a multiple would be the number of years it takes to double. The Rule of 10 Bagger would be 240 divided by a multiple would be the number of years it takes to 10x. 

The current 10 year treasury rate is a big number. Numbers are arbitrary other than the math in them. From my experience, I want a 6% risk-free as a planning hurdle. If a stock gets to a FCF yield of 15%, I am willing to back up the truck or 5% if it is growing like crazy. The yield should be EV, but the low interest environment has lowered those standards to market cap. Numbers are arbitrary and only mean as much as the standard we hold. I try to be like the rock in principle as opposed to swimming with the current in style, but hard truths are evidently hard to follow.